For months we’ve been hearing about the coming ObamaCare crisis when temporary government-enhanced subsidies expire on December 31st. Democrats shut down the government for a record 42 days mostly because of this issue. They demanded extension of the subsidies for at least three more years lest millions of Americans lose their healthcare coverage. In typical melodramatic fashion, some Democrats claimed “people will die” if the subsidies aren’t extended.
But the crisis never happened. The Wall Street Journal editorial board reported last week, “ObamaCare’s annual open enrollment ended Thursday, and what do you know? The media-fueled panic over the expiration of the pandemic-era enhanced subsidies turned out to be a false alarm.”
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) reported last week that 22.8 million Americans have signed up for ObamaCare plans as of January 3. That’s down from 24.2 million last year. People could still sign up for plans on the federal exchange through Thursday, and some states have extended their open enrollment through the end of the month.
But even if there are few new sign-ups, enrollment is still running higher than it was in 2024—when the sweetened subsidies were available. The 1.4 million decline in sign-ups compared to 2025 enrollment is also less than was predicted. The left-leaning Urban Institute projected that ObamaCare’s subsidized enrollment would drop by 7.3 million.
The Congressional Budget Office’s ObamaCare baseline in 2024 assumed 18.9 million people would enroll in plans this year if the enhanced subsidies vanished. The budget gnomes have repeatedly underestimated ObamaCare enrollment and spending; they need to rework their models. Looks like everybody got it wrong.
Like Chicken Little, who said the sky is falling, Democrats wanted us to believe that apart from the extension of the subsidies, nobody could afford to pay the ObamaCare premiums. This is particularly rich coming from the same people who promised us ObamaCare would save every American family at least $2500 per year. Remember President Obama’s promises? He also promised “If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor.” That was another lie.
One reason forecasts may have missed the mark is that they overlook that most enrollees still won’t have to pay all that much for their plans. The Paragon Health Institute estimates that an average enrollee making 150% of the poverty line ($23,475 for an individual) will be expected to pay only $14 a week.
An enrollee earning 250% of the poverty line ($39,125) would have to pay more, but still only $52 a week. Keep in mind that the income thresholds that determine subsidy amounts—which decline as incomes increase—don’t include government benefits like food stamps, welfare and disability payments and the child tax credit.
The Administration says sign-ups declined this year mainly because of measures it took to crack down on fraud. Paragon’s Brian Blase calculates that about 12 million ObamaCare enrollees in 2024 had no medical claims, suggesting they may have been enrolled in plans without their knowledge. Fraud may also explain why enrollment hasn’t fallen more.
The WSJ editors say, “The Democratic ObamaCare scare campaign has turned out to be a false and partisan alarm. Republicans who still fall for it now that the reality is clear deserve to be in the minority.”
The truth is ObamaCare is a train wreck that will only get worse the more politicians prop it up with more money. It has never lived up to the hype Democrats pushed when they passed it in 2010 under President Obama. It’s time to fix the problem with new ideas, not just more money.
